:Published and Forthcoming Peer-Reviewed Research

Thomas R. Gray and Adam G. Hughes. 2025. "Spillover Effects in Political Advertising: Evidence from Judicial Elections." The Journal of Political Marketing 24(1): 2-16.

Thomas R. Gray and Jeffery A. Jenkins. 2025. "Estimating Disenfranchisement in US Elections, 1870-1970." Perspectives on Politics 23(1): 55-75.

Thomas R. Gray and Carlos Gutierrez Mannix. 2024. "The Effect of Blackout Rules on Congressional Communications." Social Science Quarterly  105(5):1835-47.

Thomas R. Gray and Daniel S. Smith. 2023. “Lineage or Legions?: On the Determinants of Rule Duration of Roman Emperors.” International Studies Quarterly 67(1).

Thomas R. Gray and Jeffery A. Jenkins. 2022. "Messaging and Policy: Do Members Vote Differently When Policy is on the Line?" The Journal of Public Policy 42(4): 637-55.(Discussed in a blog post on LegBranch.org)​

Thomas R. Gray and Daniel S. Smith. 2022. "Retrospective Voting in the Pre-Modern World: The Case of Natural Disasters in the Roman Republic." Journal of Historical Political Economy 2(3) 477-97.​

Thomas R. Gray and Jonas Bunte. 2022. “The Effect of Grades on Student Performance: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment.” College Teaching 70(1): 15-28.​

Thomas R. Gray and Carlos Gutierrez Mannix. 2022. "Twitter and the Electoral Connection." Social Science Quarterly 102(6): 2881-93.

Thomas R. Gray, Jeffery A. Jenkins, and Philip B. K. Potter. 2022. “The Direct Election of Senators and the Emergence of the Modern Presidency.” Political Science Research and Methods 10(1): 188-97.(Discussed in blog posts on LegBranch.org and Broadstreet Blog.)

Thomas R. Gray and Jeffery A. Jenkins. 2021. "The Political Economy of the National Endowment for the Arts." Social Science Quarterly 102(4): 1553-68.

Andrew J. Clarke, Thomas R. Gray, and Adam G. Hughes. 2021. "Advertising Ideology: Using Crowd-Sourced Measurement to Understand Campaigns." Journal of Political Marketing 20(2): 198-218.

Thomas R. Gray and Banks Miller. 2021. “Swineherds and Hogs on Ice: Leadership Effects for State Chief Judges.” American Politics Research 49(3): 319-27.

Thomas R. Gray and Jeffery A. Jenkins. 2020. “A Bridge Too Far? Examining Bridging Assumptions in Common-Space Estimation.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 45(4): 531-54.

Thomas R. Gray. 2019. ​"Strategic Deference in State Supreme Courts: Executive Influence on Judicial Decision-Making in Executive Reappointment States." Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization 35(2): 394-421. (Winner of the 2016 APSA Law & Courts Section's Best Graduate Student Paper Award).

Thomas R. Gray and Jeffery A. Jenkins. 2019. "Congress and the Political Economy of Daylight Saving Time, 1918-1985." Social Science Quarterly 100(5): 1664-84. ​(Discussed in an article in The Washington Post, on The Washington Post's The Monkey Cage, the Illinois Farm Bureau's Partners Podcast, CBS 11 - DFW, and the Broadstreet Blog).

Thomas R. Gray and Jeffery A. Jenkins. 2019. "Pivotal Politics and the Ideological Content of Landmark Laws." The Journal of Public Policy 39(1): 115-42.

Thomas R. Gray and Jeffery A. Jenkins. 2017. "Unpacking Pivotal Politics: Exploring the Differential Effects of the Filibuster and Veto Pivots." Public Choice 172(3-4): 359-76.

Thomas R. Gray. 2017. "The Influence of Legislative Reappointment on State Supreme Court Decision-Making." State Politics and Policy Quarterly 17(3): 275-98.

 

Editor Reviewed Articles & Book Chapters

Daniel S. Smith and Thomas R. Gray. 2025. "Enemy Through the Gates: Warfare, Mobility, and the Political Economy of Conquest in Premodern Eurasia, 1-1799 CE." Journal of Historical Political Economy 5(2): 189-214. (Editor-Reviewed).

 

Jeffery A. Jenkins and Thomas R. Gray. 2023. "Congress and the Political Economy of the Indian Removal Act." Journal of Historical Political Economy 3(2): 237-76. (Special Issue; Editor-Reviewed).

Daniel S. Smith and Thomas R. Gray. 2021. "Looking for Leadership in Historical Context: An Extension of the RIFLE Method of Randomization Inference." Journal of Historical Political Economy 1(2): 215-34. (Special Issue; Editor-Reviewed).

Jeffery A. Jenkins and Thomas R. Gray. 2021. "Yellow Fever and Institutional Development: The Rise and Fall of the National Board of Health." Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy 2(1): 143-67. (Special Issue; Editor-Reviewed).

Andrew J. Clarke, Thomas R. Gray, and Kenneth Lowande. 2018. "Causal Inference from Pivotal Politics Theories." Journal of Politics 80(3): 1082-87. (Symposium Article; Editor-Reviewed).   

Kenneth Lowande and Thomas R. Gray. 2017. "Public Perception of the Presidential Toolkit." Presidential Studies Quarterly 47(3): 432-47. (Special Issue; Editor-Reviewed). 

Lawrence Baum, Thomas R. Gray, and David E. Klein. 2017. "Measuring the Impact of Election Outcomes on Voting in State Supreme Courts." In Judicial Elections in the 21st Century, edited by Chris W. Bonneau and Melinda Gann Hall. New York: Routledge, pages 195-216. 

 

Law Review Articles

Thomas R. Gray. 2016. "An Empirical Assessment of Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court Decision-Making on Criminal Law from 1995 to 2014." 38 W. NEW ENG. L. REV. 285.

Thomas R. Gray. 2010. "I'm Just Following Orders: A Fair Standard of Immunity for Military Service Contractors." 32 W. NEW ENG. L. REV. 373.

 

Book Reviews

Thomas R. Gray. 2021. Book Review. "The Jeffords Switch: Changing Majority Status and Causal Processes in the Senate, By Chris Den Hartog and Nathan W. Monroe." Congress & the Presidency 48(1): 109-10.

Thomas R. Gray and Daniel S. Smith. 2020. Review Essay. "Vox Populi: Popular Politics before Liberal Democracy." Journal of Politics 82(2): e21-e26.

Thomas R. Gray. 2016. Book Review. "Justices on the Ballot: Continuity and Change in State Supreme Court Elections, By Herbert M. Kritzer, Book Review." Journal of Politics 78(2): e15-16.

 

 

Other Writing

Daniel S. Smith and Thomas R. Gray. 2021. "What Does 'Historical' Mean in Historical Political Economy?" Broadstreet Blog. 

Thomas R. Gray and Jeffery A. Jenkins. 2020. "The Filibuster as a Majoritarian Check on Minority Tyranny." Niskanen Center Blog. 

 

Books Under Contract

"Untitled Project on Voter Disenfranchisement in the United States." (Under contract with Oxford University Press; with Jeffery A. Jenkins)

 

Under Review

“Popular Referendums on Disenfranchisement." (with Jeffery A. Jenkins, invited to revise and resubmit by The American Journal of Political Science)

 

 

 

Working Papers

"Coalitions and the Power of State Supreme Court Chief Justices." (with Banks Miller)​